Alaska election results will arrive late

The first batch of election results will be posted online between 8:45 and 9 p.m. Alaska Time on Tuesday. The Division of Elections expects these initial figures to represent only a portion of the total vote.

Alaska has a long history of slow ballot counting. It took roughly two weeks to call winners in the state’s U.S. Senate races in both 2008 and 2010. Burke Croft, a consultant with the Ship Creek Group, attributes this pace to the state’s vast size and logistical challenges.

State law allows overseas absentee ballots to arrive up to 15 days after Election Day, provided they are postmarked by Nov. 3. This window extends the counting period. In 131 of the state’s more than 400 precincts, election workers count ballots by hand and read results over the phone to regional offices, which further slows the process.

Election Night counts will include votes cast at polls on Tuesday, early votes from before Friday, and some absentee ballots. Croft noted that historical trends suggest these results typically account for around 70% of the overall vote. This means close races may remain undecided for days.

“In elections past, we've seen shifts as large as four or so points,” Croft said. “So we can expect some amount of uncertainty as results come in after Election Day.”

Election officials are scheduled to provide updated counts on Nov. 7, Nov. 10, and Nov. 15. The first scheduled update on Nov. 10 is expected to include almost all early votes and a large batch of absentee ballots, particularly from areas off the road system. By the Nov. 13 update, nearly all ballots should be counted. The final unofficial update is set for Nov. 18.

Ranked choice voting will apply to any race where no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote. The Division of Elections will not officially tabulate these rankings until Nov. 18. However, spokesperson Steve Kirch said the division plans to release raw data with each scheduled update, starting with the last batch of Election Night results. This data requires specialized software to interpret. The division declined to explain why it does not perform preliminary ranked choice tabulations alongside the scheduled updates.

Officials plan to certify the election by Nov. 25. Any recount requests must be filed within five days of that certification date.

Former Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai and former regional supervisor Jeremy Johnson recently argued that the state could report results faster. They stated that ranked choice voting is not the cause of the delay. “We can say unequivocally that this is not the case,” they wrote. Fenumiai, who retired in 2022, said she waited until the 15th day for the first two ranked choice elections out of caution. She now believes more frequent tabulation would help voters understand where races stand.

Fenumiai and Johnson suggested several reforms, including electronic poll books, same-day voter registration, and allowing officials to scan absentee ballots before polls close. For now, Fenumiai urged patience, noting that the Division of Elections staff has integrity.