Anchorage Election: Sullivan, Begich Lead as RCV Repeal Trails

The unofficial first-choice results from the Alaska Division of Elections show Republican U.S. Sen. Dan S. Sullivan holding a slim advantage over Democrat Mary Peltola as of 10:48 p.m. on Nov. 3. Sullivan had received 99,559 votes, or 48.45 percent, compared to Peltola’s 97,488 votes, or 47.45 percent. The margin between the two candidates remains narrow, and the race is expected to stay tight as more ballots are processed.

In the contest for the state’s single U.S. House seat, Republican Nick Begich has widened his early lead. He has tallied 102,137 votes, representing 49.93 percent of the total, against nonpartisan Bill Hill’s 81,923 votes, or 40.05 percent. Democrat Eric Hafner follows with 14,700 votes, and Libertarian James C. “Jim” McDermott has 5,500 votes. The final outcome in this race will depend on the full count of remaining ballots.

For the governor’s race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads with 99,293 first-choice votes, or 48.85 percent. Republican Bernadette Wilson trails with 59,743 votes, or 29.39 percent. Two other Republican candidates, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor, hold smaller shares of the vote. If the current trends hold and Republican voters ranked all three conservative candidates, the race could proceed to a ranked-choice runoff to determine a winner.

Voters in Alaska continue to narrowly oppose Ballot Measure 2, which seeks to repeal the state’s ranked-choice voting system. As of the latest count, 100,923 voters, or 51.42 percent, voted No, while 95,339 voters, or 48.58 percent, voted Yes. Separately, Ballot Measure 3, which clarifies that only U.S. citizens can vote in Alaska elections, is leading with 137,641 Yes votes against 59,182 No votes.

The state elections division will release updates on Nov. 10 and Nov. 13. Final unofficial results are scheduled for posting on Nov. 18. The election is set to be officially certified on Nov. 25, more than three weeks after Election Day. This extended timeline allows for the processing of absentee ballots and rural precinct reports that have not yet been fully counted.

The current figures represent first-choice votes only. Under Alaska’s ranked-choice system, final results in races without a majority will not be determined until all eligible ballots are counted and tabulated. The initial results include only votes cast at the polls, along with some early votes and absentee ballots. Additional ballots from rural areas and those cast between Oct. 31 and Nov. 2 are still in transit to the state elections division.

Alaska allows a 15-day window for postmarked absentee ballots to arrive after Election Day. Based on the 2022 midterm election, the state may expect another 60,000 votes to be counted before the final tally is reached. As these ballots are processed, the margins in close races may shift, potentially altering the outcome of the federal and state contests.

The reporting rate for precincts stands at 78.05 percent, with 313 of 401 precincts reporting. A total of 206,783 ballots have been counted, which constitutes 34.15 percent of the total. The division continues to monitor the influx of new ballots, particularly from rural districts where reporting rates remain lower than in urban areas.