Peltola Leads Sullivan by 637 Votes as Trump Criticizes Alaska Senate Race

Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan by 637 first-choice votes in the Alaska U.S. Senate race, according to preliminary results updated Wednesday afternoon. More than 200,000 ballots have been counted so far, but tens of thousands of early, absentee, and rural in-person votes remain unprocessed. Peltola holds 102,962 votes, representing 48 percent of the total. Sullivan has 102,325 votes, or 47.7 percent. Gerald Heikes, a Republican perennial candidate from Palmer, trails with 4,846 votes. Dan J. Sullivan, a retired educator from Petersburg, has 3,600 votes.

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Thursday that votes for Dan J. Sullivan and a second candidate he referred to as a "slug" should be given to the "REAL Dan Sullivan." The president suggested this would end the election, bypassing the state Division of Elections' ongoing tabulation. Heikes, whom Trump appeared to call a slug, said he was slightly irritated by the comparison. He stated that the president had not done his homework and should go home to study. Heikes added that he was quoted in the president's post but had not been notified beforehand.

Under Alaska's ranked choice voting system, if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of first-choice votes by the final count on November 18, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. Their ballots are redistributed to voters' next choices. This process continues until one candidate reaches a majority. Heikes and Dan J. Sullivan could be eliminated in this process, potentially shifting the race between Peltola and Sullivan.

A federal lawsuit seeking to stop the certification of the race was dismissed by a U.S. District Court judge in Alaska over the weekend. The case was ordered by Trump and seeks to segregate ballots for investigation. The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has set a schedule for arguments to be due January 11, which is after new senators are sworn in on January 3. The U.S. Justice Department's opening argument is not due until December 14.

Marc Elias, a legal expert who represents Democratic presidential campaigns, criticized the federal government's actions in a newsletter. He stated that the Justice Department lost badly in the lower court and has not sought immediate review. Elias said the administration is trying to accomplish in court what Trump is demanding on social media. Elias noted that the Justice Department sent him a target letter earlier this week, a document often issued to people at risk of indictment.

Both campaigns released statements outlining their paths to victory based on available data. Peltola's campaign said the numbers show her lead will extend as remaining ballots are counted. They called Sullivan's path to victory fictitious. Sullivan's campaign cited an analysis suggesting he would win by 328 votes if ranked choice tabulation occurred immediately. However, the campaign acknowledged that tens of thousands of ballots are still outstanding, including 10,805 votes from rural precincts that have strongly favored Peltola. The Sullivan campaign also stated that the senator is in this position despite what they called the biggest election cheating scandal in Alaska's history.