2.5%: The vote share that could decide the Alaska Senate race

The U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit on Oct. 22 in the U.S. District Court for Alaska. The suit seeks to prevent the state from certifying the Nov. 3 U.S. Senate election results if voter confusion affected the outcome. The complaint targets the presence of Daniel J. Sullivan, a Petersburg resident, on the ballot alongside incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan.

Daniel J. Sullivan, often called Decoy Dan, has never held political office. He filed to run for the Senate in late May, shortly after Sen. Sullivan filed on May 16. The federal complaint alleges the candidacy was designed to mislead supporters of the incumbent. The goal, according to the U.S., was to reduce votes for Sen. Sullivan and benefit Democrat Mary Peltola.

Alaska Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher issued a letter on June 15 finding the candidacy improperly filed. She stated the declaration was not submitted in good faith. The letter noted that Daniel J. Sullivan asked to appear as Dan Sullivan, the same name as the incumbent, despite not registering to vote under that name. He also claimed Republican affiliation despite no prior history with the party in Alaska. He worked with a consultant known as a longtime supporter of Peltola.

The Alaska Supreme Court allowed Daniel J. Sullivan to remain on the general election ballot despite the Division’s findings. In the Aug. 28 primary, Peltola received 49.5 percent of the vote. Sen. Sullivan received 41.4 percent. Daniel J. Sullivan received 2.5 percent. Republican Gerald Heikes received 1.1 percent.

The complaint argues that Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system increases the risk of error. Voters rank candidates by preference. If no candidate gets a majority, the lowest vote-getter is eliminated and votes transfer. The U.S. contends that a voter intending to choose Sen. Sullivan might accidentally select Daniel J. Sullivan. Polls show the race is within one or two percentage points. The suit asserts that the 2.5 percent share from the primary creates a realistic chance that Peltola could win even if a majority of Alaskans prefer Sen. Sullivan.

The lawsuit names the State of Alaska, Carol Beecher, the Alaska Election Boards, and the State Ballot Counting Review Board as defendants. It cites the National Voter Registration Act. The U.S. seeks a declaration that certifying a confused result violates federal duties. It also requests an injunction barring certification if Sen. Sullivan would have won had all votes for Daniel J. Sullivan transferred to him.

Associate Attorney General Stanley E. Woodward Jr. and Assistant U.S. Attorney E. Bryan Wilson filed the complaint. The next step in the process is the Nov. 3 general election. The court will determine whether the state can certify the results based on the legal arguments presented in the suit.