Midterm elections test GOP support as Trump weighs in on races

Elections held Tuesday will determine whether Republicans can hold their majority in Congress despite President Donald Trump’s direct influence on the campaign.

Trump’s political groups have spent nearly $277 million to support Republican candidates since September. This expenditure puts the 2026 midterm cycle on pace to become the most expensive in history.

The president’s administration has imposed tariffs, initiated a conflict in Iran, and begun major renovations in Washington, D.C. These actions have linked the GOP to rising gas prices and grocery costs. Republicans find it difficult to blame previous administrations because Trump has publicly owned these decisions.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin described the situation as making it exponentially harder for Republicans to keep the House and Senate. He noted that the Iran war, which Trump said would be over in weeks, has continued for eight months without a clear conclusion.

Former President Barack Obama stated in Ohio that the administration’s actions are directly responsible for rising costs. Trump has dismissed affordability challenges as a hoax and told a Georgia rally that he does not give a damn about criticism of gas prices.

The president has also taken in $1.2 billion from crypto businesses while most investors lost money. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg argued in Virginia that the corruption seen in Washington is directly connected to the economic pain people feel.

Construction on a ballroom over the White House continues, with Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts deeming it likely unlawful. The administration is also preparing to close a park along the Potomac River to make way for a golf course.

Historical data shows that midterms are usually difficult for the president’s party. Democrats gained 40 House seats in 2018 under Trump and 31 seats in 2006 under George W. Bush. Republicans gained 63 seats in 2010 under Barack Obama but fewer than 10 in 2022 under Joe Biden.

Sen. John Cornyn of Texas warned that Trump’s choice of Ken Paxton as the GOP Senate nominee is weak against Democrat James Talarico. Cornyn said that even in red states, flawed candidates will have a hard time.

About one-third of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, according to AP-NORC polling. This approval rating is lower than Biden’s was before the last midterms. Trump has not given candidates much room to distance themselves, leading some to remove mentions of him from their websites.

Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP nominee for Senate in Iowa, said she would be an ally to Trump when it is important for Iowa but would push back on him. She visited an ethanol facility in Dyersville with EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin. Hinson expressed nervousness about lifting sanctions on Russia to lower diesel prices.

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore warned that anger against Trump is a waning emotion and that Democrats must deliver results. Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan said that a midterm is a signal and a reaction to the party in power. She cautioned that voters are not falling in love with Democrats, but what the party does starting January 1 will be a proof point for swing voters.