Coalition Math: Netanyahu's Bloc Holds 53 Seats, Opposition 48

Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc is projected to control 53 of the 120 seats in the upcoming Israeli Knesset, according to final tallies released by the Central Elections Committee. The figures place the Prime Minister's camp 8 seats short of the 61 required for a legislative majority. The opposition bloc trails with a projected 48 seats, leaving both sides dependent on smaller parties to form a governing coalition.

Likud is expected to capture 26 seats for Netanyahu. The rest of the right-wing bloc includes United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Otzma Yehudit, each with 7 seats, plus the Religious Zionist Party with 6. On the other side, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads the opposition with 21 seats. B'Yachad, the vehicle for Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, is projected at 12 seats. Yair Golan's Democrats are expected to take 8 seats, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu 7.

The 19 seats held by Arab parties now determine the balance of power. The Joint List is projected to win 12 of those seats, while Ra'am is expected to take 7. Neither major bloc has a clear path to a majority without their support. Eisenkot has ruled out a unity deal with Netanyahu, citing past refusals to serve under him even in rotational arrangements. Other opposition leaders have similarly rejected a coalition led by the Prime Minister.

Yair Golan has argued that the opposition holds a de facto majority if Arab parties are included. He noted on social media that the opposition reaches 65 seats when those parties are counted, which exceeds the 55 seats needed if the 16 Haredi members of the right-wing bloc are excluded from a Zionist-only calculation. Golan stated that the opposition has a responsibility to form a government that serves all Israelis.

Yousef Jabareen, chairman of the Joint List, said his party is prepared to support the removal of the Netanyahu government. He described the potential alternative as a partnership based on Jewish-Arab cooperation. Ahmad Tibi, a faction chairman within the Joint List, told Army Radio that the opposition could form a government if it had the courage to do so. He said his party was ready to help.

Exit polls suggested a minority government might be possible if it could pass a confidence vote without a formal 61-seat majority. However, resistance within the opposition bloc to relying on Arab parties could complicate that route. If coalition talks fail, Israel may face another election. The Central Elections Committee released the final seat projections on Wednesday after counting nearly 5 million votes.