50 seats: The gap in Netanyahu's path to a third term

Israeli voters cast ballots on Tuesday for the 120 seats in the Knesset, marking the first parliamentary election since the October 7, 2023, attacks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to extend his tenure as the country's longest-serving leader, but current projections suggest his coalition lacks the numbers to govern alone.

Polling stations opened at 7:00 a.m. local time and will close at 10:00 p.m. A total of 36 lists are competing for the seats. Netanyahu's current government, a coalition of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties, took office in December 2022. It became the first Israeli cabinet since 1988 to complete a full four-year term.

Despite the stable duration of the current administration, pollsters project Netanyahu's bloc will secure only about 50 seats. A majority requires 61 seats. This deficit places Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief leading the Yashar party, in a strong position. Eisenkot's party is projected to outperform Netanyahu's Likud party in the upcoming count.

Neither the incumbent bloc nor the opposition camp is expected to reach a majority on its own. Palestinian-led parties are projected to win a combined 14 to 16 seats. Both major camps have ruled out forming a coalition with these groups, leaving them in a critical role during government negotiations.

Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel is a key variable. They make up approximately 18 percent of eligible voters, or 1.17 million people. Arab48 reported high early turnout in Palestinian-majority towns. Pollsters indicate that turnout rates of 60 to 70 percent, an increase from the 53 percent recorded in 2022, could solidify the seat range for Ra’am and the Joint List.

Netanyahu has served as prime minister for more than 19 years across three distinct terms. He first held the office from 1996 to 1999, served from 2009 to 2021, and began his current term in December 2022. Eisenkot aims to end this long streak of leadership.

Israeli television channels will broadcast exit polls as voting concludes. Unofficial results are expected overnight, while a full count is due by October 30. Official results are scheduled for release on November 4.