Netanyahu's Path Remains Open as 64-Seat Majority Stalls

For millions of Israelis, the outcome of the October 28 election creates a confusing reality: the opposition holds a majority, but Benjamin Netanyahu may still stay in power. The vote stripped the prime minister’s far-right coalition of its previous mandate, yet a self-imposed rule by most Jewish opposition parties prevents them from governing alongside Palestinian-led partners. This technicality gives Netanyahu a viable route to remain in office or serve as caretaker for an extended period.

The first key point is the mathematical stalemate. The opposition bloc secured 64 seats, enough to form a government on paper. However, leaders have largely refused to work with the Ra'am party and the Joint List. As a result, the 64-seat majority is not translating into a governing majority. Netanyahu’s camp, which lost about 10 seats from its 2022 configuration, is leveraging this deadlock. If the opposition cannot close the ethnic gap, the Knesset may face another round of elections or a prolonged caretaker administration under the current prime minister.

The second point involves the political psychology of the voters. A survey conducted as polls closed indicated that a clear majority of opposition voters actually support forming a government with Ra'am to remove Netanyahu. This public sentiment stands in stark contrast to the silence of party leaders. Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, rejected the idea of a stalemate. "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count," he said. Golan urged citizens to stop accepting the division between Jewish and Arab votes, arguing that the demographic reality of the country demands a unified government.

The third point concerns the specific tactics used by both sides during the campaign. Netanyahu’s posters frequently displayed the slogan "The right or Palestine," framing the fifth of the population who are Palestinian as an internal enemy. This strategy aimed to consolidate his base while complicating coalition math for rivals. In response, Yousef Jabareen, head of the Joint List, declared his party "ready and prepared to pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government." Ra'am also signaled flexibility by placing a Jewish former police chief in second position on its slate.

Contextual factors shape this impasse. The election was marked by deep concerns over the erosion of democracy and the need for a state commission of inquiry into the 7 October attacks. Palestinian citizens, who face rising crime and discrimination, turned out in record numbers. Former general Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the largest opposition party, has not directly ruled out a partnership with Ra'am but set conditions that many view as politically difficult to meet. The Knesset has moved further right overall, and Netanyahu claimed vindication on election night, stating that the right-wing bloc holds "a clear, decisive majority among the Zionist public." The final decision on whether the opposition will break their pledge or accept a caretaker status remains with the party leaders who are currently weighing their options.