Israel Election Leaves No Clear Winner, Forcing Coalitional Calculations

Early results from the parliamentary election held on Tuesday indicate a fractured Knesset in which neither major camp can secure a governing majority. The identity of the next prime minister remains undecided as final tallies are processed.

Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is projected to win as many as 28 seats. His coalition of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox groups is expected to total fewer than the 61 seats required to govern. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party appears set to finish in second place with approximately 22 seats. The broader change bloc surrounding Eisenkot is estimated at roughly 47 seats, also below the threshold for a majority.

Arab parties are on track to win at least 17 seats combined. Both major blocs stated during the campaign that they would exclude these parties from their coalitions. However, their vote total could make them essential partners in any effort to replace Netanyahu. Formal consultations to recommend a prime ministerial candidate to President Isaac Herzog are scheduled to begin next week.

Analysts have identified three primary paths forward. The first involves a government backed by the change bloc and Arab parties. All change bloc parties except the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, promised not to sit with Arab factions. Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra'am party, has offered to cooperate again. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that this option is mathematically sound but breaks campaign pledges. He stated that the public is deeply unprepared for such an arrangement, particularly given falling tolerance for alliances with Islamist parties since the October 2023 attacks.

A variation on this scenario would be a minority government consisting of Yashar, B'Yachad, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Democrats, with Arab factions providing external support. This configuration could reach 65 seats. Avigdor Lieberman has rejected the idea, though Professor Jonathan Rynhold of Bar-Ilan University suggested he might agree if he were the prime minister. The Arab parties may demand concessions that Eisenkot finds difficult to accept.

A second possibility is a unity government. Plesner suggested this may be more likely, with Netanyahu retaining his core bloc while luring in one change bloc party. Change bloc members would likely demand that Netanyahu drop a far-right or ultra-Orthodox party resisting draft bills. Plesner warned that many voters who supported replacing Netanyahu would feel betrayed by such a centrist-leaning result.

The third option is a repeat election. Eisenkot called a new vote a mistake given the high turnout of 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999. Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said entrenched camps make new elections plausible. Plesner estimated that it may take weeks or months to determine who becomes prime minister.