Israeli airport data shows surge in arrivals before Tuesday vote

Isrealis are adjusting travel plans ahead of the Knesset election scheduled for Tuesday, October 27. Channel 13 reported on Sunday that passenger traffic at Ben-Gurion Airport has shifted sharply in the days leading up to the ballot.

The station compared airport data from October 17 to October 27 across three years: 2022, 2025, and 2026. Departures have declined, suggesting many citizens are postponing trips to vote. In 2026, approximately 245,000 passengers left the country during this period. This figure is lower than the roughly 270,000 departures recorded in 2025 and the 323,000 recorded in 2022, the previous general election year. The decline occurs even as the number of available aircraft and flights has increased since earlier years.

Arrivals have risen more than departures, creating a net gap of over 90,000 incoming passengers in 2026. This contrasts with a gap of about 77,000 in the same period in 2025. No large-scale airlift of special flights was organized for 2026, and most returning citizens used existing commercial capacity. Channel 13 estimated that if all 90,000 net arrivals were eligible voters who cast valid ballots, the group would represent roughly two Knesset seats. However, the data includes children and foreign nationals who cannot vote, so the exact number of voters is not determined by these totals.

The electoral threshold in Israel is 3.25% of valid votes. Modest changes in turnout can determine whether parties near that line secure seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The impact of returning voters depends on how their ballots are distributed among parties that clear the threshold.

A recent Fly&Vote survey estimated that about 67,000 Israelis living abroad planned to return to vote. This figure was based on registration data and voluntary surveys rather than confirmed arrivals. Most citizens abroad must return to Israel to cast ballots, as remote voting is not widely available. The AID Coalition runs the Fly&Vote initiative, though its activities faced restrictions after legal proceedings initiated by Likud.

Alon Ben-Gurion, grandson of the first prime minister, arrived from the United States with his family to vote in Tiberias. Interest in returning to vote was visible as early as August, when organizers arranged dedicated flights from New York and Lisbon to meet demand.