One Nation Ties Labor In Poll

Labor and One Nation are tied in the latest national poll, a result that coincides with a sharp rise in dissatisfaction with the current government. The Guardian Essential survey, conducted last week among 1,087 Australians, found both parties sitting at 28% of the primary vote. The Coalition trails the two leaders at 23%.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese faces his strongest headwind since taking office in 2022. His disapproval rating climbed two points to 56%, a level that matches the highest recorded during his tenure. His approval rating stood at 38%, leaving him with a net approval score of minus 18. The only time his disapproval was higher was in August, when it reached 57% alongside a lower approval score of 35%.

Voters increasingly believe the nation is moving away from a desirable path. In this October poll, 61% of respondents said the country is on the wrong track, while only 25% believed it is on the right track. This figure marks a substantial increase from 38% in May 2023 and has remained above 50% since January of this year.

Despite the pressure on Labor, the electorate has not yet settled on a clear alternative. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor improved his standing, recording a 35% approval rating and a 40% disapproval rating. This results in a net approval of minus 5, a notable gain from his September scores of 31% approval and 43% disapproval.

Economic concerns remain a primary driver of voter sentiment. When asked about the rising cost of living, 32% of voters cited government spending as the top cause. This was higher than the 24% who blamed global events such as the war in the Middle East and the 19% who pointed to supermarket price increases.

Labor retains a lead in public trust on key issues. The party leads with 32% on the question of ensuring the economy works for everyday Australians, compared to 29% for One Nation and 18% for the Coalition. Labor also leads with 31% on the ability to manage the country generally, ahead of One Nation at 25% and the Coalition at 23%.

Voters remain skeptical of One Nation’s potential governance capabilities. While 43% think the party would manage immigration better than current settings, 33% believe it would be worse. On handling relationships with trading partners like the US and China, 39% expect a worse job, with only 20% expecting an improvement. Similar skepticism applies to energy policy, grocery costs, pandemic management, and general economic management, where more voters expect a decline in performance than an improvement.