Minnesota Senate Race: Latest Poll Shows Democrat Ahead

A new poll released Wednesday shows Democrat Peggy Flanagan leading Republican Michele Tafoya by a wide margin in the Minnesota Senate race.

The survey, conducted by the New York Times and Siena College, found Flanagan at 54% and Tafoya at 40% among registered voters. This result marks a sharp departure from September and early October polls, which showed the two candidates within a few points of each other.

The data indicates Flanagan holds leads across most demographic groups. She outperformed Tafoya among younger and older voters, white and non-white voters, and both college-educated and non-college-educated respondents. Flanagan also led on specific issues, including the cost of living, foreign wars, and immigration.

Tafoya challenged the findings in an interview on Fox News. She described the survey as a huge outlier. The poll sampled 752 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9% to 4.2%. Nate Cohn, the New York Times chief political analyst, acknowledged the sample size was small. He suggested the result might be a warning sign similar to the 2024 Iowa poll, but he concluded the race might not be a true battleground.

Campaigns on both sides have intensified their efforts in the final days before the Nov. 3 election. Flanagan has campaigned with several high-profile Democrats, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Chris Murphy, Rep. Pramila Jayapal, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Her team focuses on linking Tafoya to President Donald Trump.

Tafoya has tried to distance herself from the president, a strategy that may have been complicated by Trump's public endorsements. He has backed Tafoya twice and warned against ballot irregularities on Truth Social. He wrote, “The only way she can lose is if they cheat by playing games with the ballots as they come in.”

Vice President JD Vance planned to visit St. Cloud on Friday to discuss fraud prevention with his White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud. The White House cancelled the trip hours after announcing it on Thursday without providing a reason. Poll respondents ranked corruption and fraud as the second most important issue behind the economy.

The candidates have traded attacks regarding their personal finances and past comments. Tafoya questioned how Flanagan’s wealth grew while she served as lieutenant governor, a role with a $129,000 annual salary. Flanagan’s financial disclosures show a net worth between $990,000 and $2.7 million. She attributed the increase to an inheritance from her late aunt. Tafoya’s disclosures list her and her husband’s assets at between $17 million and $33 million.

Flanagan’s campaign also cited comments Tafoya made in 2023 on a podcast. Tafoya described former reporter Lisa Guerrero as an attention-seeking drama queen who was not tough enough. Flanagan’s team used these remarks to criticize Tafoya’s record in media.

Spending in this contest remains lower than in other major races. The Federal Election Commission data from Oct. 14 shows Flanagan spent about $11 million and Tafoya nearly $9 million. Third-party groups contributed roughly $2 million each to their respective efforts. This total is far below the $500 million spent in the Texas Senate race.

The election will determine control of the U.S. Senate. Democrats need to flip four seats to take the chamber from Republican control. Minnesota is one of the states where they are seeking a victory.