Seven toss-up races will decide Senate control in 2026

Democrats and Republicans are focused on seven states where polls show the races for the U.S. Senate are close enough to be unpredictable. The Cook Political Report rates these seven contests as toss-ups. Democrats need to win four seats to retake the chamber. They currently hold a clear lead in North Carolina, where former Governor Roy Cooper is favored to win an open seat.

According to Washington Post averages of recent high-quality polls, Democrats hold a lead in all seven toss-up races. Most of these leads are within the margin of error. Republicans are outspending Democrats in most of these contests, with the largest financial advantages in Texas and Ohio.

In Alaska, Democratic former Congresswoman Mary Peltola is challenging Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. Peltola leads by five points in the polling average. Republicans will spend $9.5 million more than Democrats from Labor Day through Election Day. Senator Chuck Schumer called Peltola's entry into the race the last piece of the puzzle for the Democratic strategy. The race has been complicated by the entry of retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who appears on the ballot under the state's top-four system. The Justice Department filed a lawsuit last week to block certification of results if the incumbent loses.

In Iowa, Democratic State Representative Josh Turek leads Republican Representative Ashley Hinson by two points. Democrats will spend $12.9 million more than Republicans in the state. The race features attacks on both candidates' voting records and family wealth.

Kansas polls show Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Senator Roger Marshall by one point. Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, leads in fundraising despite Republican claims that he is a fake moderate. Democrats are outspending Republicans in this state by $18.3 million.

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins by two points. Republicans hold an $11.8 million spending advantage. Jackson, a former state Senate president, replaced earlier candidates who dropped out. Polling in Maine is considered less reliable after the 2020 election results.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican former Representative Mike Rogers by four points. Republicans will spend $23.5 million more than Democrats. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown leads appointed Senator Jon Husted by four points, despite a $71 million Republican spending advantage. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by three points. Republicans will spend $159.1 million more than Democrats in the state, a sum that includes $158 million from Elon Musk's super PAC.