Texas Senate Race: Talarico Leads Paxton in Polls and Fundraising

James Talarico holds a polling lead over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race.

Talarico, a former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, is challenging Paxton, the current Texas attorney general. Polls show Talarico leading by wider margins than those recorded in 2018 when Beto O'Rourke ran against Ted Cruz. From July through September, Talarico's campaign raised $64 million. Paxton raised $18 million during that same three-month period. Since launching his bid, Talarico has collected more than $146 million.

Paxton has access to substantial outside funding. Republican outside groups have poured more than $200 million into the race to support him. Nearly all of that money comes from Elon Musk. MAGA Inc., the super PAC led by President Donald Trump, has spent another $33.7 million on ads for Paxton, according to AdImpact data.

Talarico framed the spending disparity as a David and Goliath battle at a rally in Dallas on Thursday. He told supporters they were his weapon against powerful interests. "David wasn’t as big or as strong as Goliath. He didn’t have as many weapons, but he had hope. He had faith, and he had a slingshot," Talarico said. "Dallas, you are my slingshot. The people of Texas are my slingshot."

Talarico held events in El Paso, Midland, and Amarillo earlier this week. On Tuesday, he drew more than 4,000 people to a rally in Lubbock. The crowd was larger than expected, forcing the campaign to move to a larger venue. Trump held a rally with Paxton about four miles away that same night. Trump shifted his rally time so it overlapped with Talarico's event.

Supporters at Talarico's rallies in Lubbock said Trump's presence signaled Republican anxiety. Natalie, a voter from Friona, called the timing "nervous." "I think it’s performative, like to come the exact same day as he is here," she said. Jenny, a Paxton backer from Brownsville, told reporters outside the Trump rally that the race was "not close." She predicted Paxton would "wipe the floor" with Talarico.

Some voters cited Paxton's legal history and his impeachment by the Texas House when explaining their support for Talarico. Lori, a Dallas voter who previously voted Republican, said she supported "honesty, decency and integrity." George, a lifelong Texan in Dallas, described Talarico as "a breath of fresh air." Elias, a nurse in Lubbock, described Paxton as a weak leader. "He needs daddy Trump to come and support him," Elias said. The election is scheduled for Nov. 3.