Trump-Kim Summit Prospects Dim as North Korea Expands Arsenal

North Korea has shown little interest in a summit with President Donald Trump, according to four people familiar with diplomatic discussions among U.S., North Korean, Chinese, and South Korean officials. The potential meeting, which Trump previously expected to hold on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering in China, has lost momentum as Pyongyang focuses on other alliances. These discussions are expected to take place just weeks before the APEC event.

Kim Jong Un recently arrived at the Chinese border for a surprise meeting with a top lieutenant of President Xi Jinping. The visit followed a series of high-level diplomatic engagements for the North Korean leader, including a military parade in Beijing with Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin last September. Xi also visited Pyongyang in June, his first trip there in seven years. This activity signals a regime that is less dependent on Washington for international standing.

North Korea's negotiating position has strengthened due to its growing nuclear capabilities and economic shifts. The country's nuclear arsenal has expanded from an estimated 10 to 20 warheads to roughly 60, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Pyongyang has also tested a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the continental United States. Additionally, North Korea bankrolls its sanctioned economy through cybertheft. On Thursday, cryptocurrency exchange Binance confirmed a $6.3 billion hack attributed to North Korean hackers.

Patricia Kim, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted that the geopolitical situation has changed since 2018. She stated that Kim is in a stronger position because he is less diplomatically isolated, having forged a security partnership with Moscow and deepened ties with Beijing. This shift reduces the leverage Trump holds over the reclusive regime regarding denuclearization.

Tensions with South Korea have also risen. On Thursday, North Korea fired a barrage of ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast. This action escalated a dispute over a border mine explosion that injured three South Korean soldiers last month. Pyongyang also tested an intermediate-range ballistic missile earlier this month. A White House spokesperson stated that the administration has nothing to share regarding a summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un.

The U.S. commitment to North Korea's complete denuclearization was reaffirmed at a trilateral meeting last month. Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined his Japanese and South Korean counterparts to reiterate this long-standing policy. This stance contrasts with the 2018 joint statement, where Trump and Kim pledged to establish new relations and work toward denuclearization. North Korea's GDP has grown by more than 3 percent annually since 2023, according to South Korean central bank estimates, further reducing its economic isolation.

Trump has recently tempered public expectations for a meeting. After expressing confidence in August that the two leaders would meet, he said earlier this month that he may see Kim. He later told reporters at the White House that he was not sure anyone was asking for a meeting. The North Korean mission to the United Nations in New York did not respond to a request for comment regarding the stalled diplomatic efforts.