Alaska voters choose Senate, governor as House control hangs by three seats

Polls across Alaska open at 7 a.m. and remain open until 8 p.m. today, marking the midpoint of President Donald Trump's second term. In Anchorage, residents will head to the polls to decide the state's U.S. Senate seat, the governorship, and the state's sole U.S. House district. The timing of these local choices coincides with a national contest that is defined by razor-thin margins in the House of Representatives.

According to Ballotpedia, all 435 seats in the U.S. House are up for election. Republicans currently hold 218 seats, while Democrats hold 214, with one independent and several vacancies. This three-seat margin means Democrats need a net gain of three districts to secure a majority, a threshold that Republicans can lose by no more than two seats. The Associated Press describes the election as a referendum on the president's performance, with voters weighing in on economic conditions and foreign policy.

In the state Senate race, incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is seeking re-election. The race is currently rated as a toss-up to lean Democratic by several major trackers. The Associated Press notes that the Trump administration has filed a lawsuit related to the certification of the Senate result in Alaska, adding a layer of legal complexity to a contest that many view as a key indicator of the party's standing in the region.

The governor's race is also a focal point, as the seat is open with no incumbent running. Ballotpedia lists the governor's race as a battleground, noting that Democrats are hoping to hold a majority of governorships for the first time in two decades. In Anchorage, voters will choose between candidates from the Democratic, Nonpartisan, and Republican parties for this executive office, which carries significant power over state budget and policy decisions.

Nationally, the House race is characterized by a large number of competitive districts. Ballotpedia counts 46 battleground districts, with 25 currently held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. Of the Democratic-held districts, 21 voted for President Trump in 2024, while nine Republican-held districts voted for Kamala Harris. This overlap suggests that many of these seats will be decided by voter turnout and shifting alliances among independents and moderates.

Redistricting has altered the political landscape in several states. Six states, including California, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas, are using new congressional maps after mid-decade redistricting. Ohio also utilizes a new map. The Associated Press notes that while Republicans attempted to use redistricting to beat the typical midterm trend of losing seats, the new districts in places like Florida may not vote as the maps were originally drawn.

Early voting has been high, with more than 57 million people having already cast their ballots as of Monday. This figure surpasses the early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states. The United States Postal Service has added hours, staff, and special lines to ensure that mail ballots are counted on time, a logistical effort that is critical in states where mail voting is prevalent.

The mood among voters is mixed, with the Associated Press noting that many are struggling with high prices and are angry over an unpopular war with Iran. AP-NORC polling shows that 35% of U.S. adults approve of President Trump's job performance, while about seven in 10 say the country is heading in the wrong direction. These sentiments are expected to drive turnout in the 46 battleground districts where the House majority will likely be determined.

Financially, the 2026 elections are expected to be the most expensive in history. Republican committees have outraised and outspent their Democratic counterparts, aided by Trump-affiliated groups. However, at the candidate level, Democrats have outraised their opponents. The Associated Press analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1% of Republican general election TV ad spending has gone to states and districts where Trump won in 2024.

As polls open in Anchorage, the focus is on the three-seat margin that defines the House race. Republicans are bracing for the possibility of losing the chamber, while Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their chances. The outcome of these 46 battleground districts will dictate the balance of power in Congress for the final two years of the current presidential term.

In the Senate, 35 seats are up for election, including 33 regular elections and two special elections. Republicans hold 53 seats, while Democrats hold 45, plus two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate, a higher hurdle than the three-seat requirement in the House. The competition in states like Iowa, Kansas, and Maine will be crucial in determining which party controls the upper chamber.