Brazilian Election: Lula Defies Odds for Fourth Term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term as president of Brazil, defeating right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in a race that swung late in the day. The result marks a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the 81-year-old leader, who entered the second round trailing his opponent.

Lula captured 51.79% of the total vote, while Flávio Bolsonaro received 48.21%. That represents a gap of 4.4 million votes. This victory makes Lula the first Brazilian president since the return to civilian rule in 1985 to win an election after losing the first round of voting. He had trailed Bolsonaro by two percentage points on 4 October, when Bolsonaro won 47% of the vote to Lula's 45%.

The final hours of voting on Sunday were marked by a two-hour extension ordered by the Supreme Court. Both campaigns requested the delay for different reasons. Lula's team argued that a lack of buses in São Paulo and Bahia prevented voters from reaching polling stations. Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign cited heavy rain in the south and São Paulo as the cause. The decision came just as polls were set to close, meaning some stations that had already shut could not reopen.

Kassio Nunes Marques, who presides over the Supreme Court, confirmed the victory. He stated that the extension did not create problems for the vote count or the electoral process. Nunes Marques was appointed by Jair Bolsonaro, the father of the losing candidate.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to acknowledge the outcome. In a statement, he called the result inexplicable and impossible, arguing that it should be annulled. Jair Bolsonaro, who was preparing to deliver a victory speech, echoed these sentiments. However, legal experts suggest the challenge is unlikely to succeed. Fernando Neisser of the Institute of Lawyers of São Paulo noted that the large margin of victory makes a legal annulment difficult. Alberto Rollo, another expert, pointed out that presidential election dates are fixed by the constitution, adding complexity to any appeal.

Lula celebrated in the streets of São Paulo, addressing crowds about the win. He described the election as a loss for negativity and lies, and later urged his supporters to say long live democracy. Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin told him that he had saved Brazilian democracy for the second time. Lula, who will turn 81 on Tuesday, said this fourth term would be the best in the country's history because he would listen most closely to the people.

The campaign saw a major drop in abstention rates between the first and second rounds. This was the largest decline in voter turnout between rounds since 1989. Lula's team focused on boosting turnout after 33 million people did not vote in the first round. This surge in participation helped close the gap he faced in early October.

The new term is scheduled to begin on 5 January and will last until 2030. The victory comes amid tensions with the United States, where President Donald Trump has expressed support for Jair Bolsonaro. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for a coup attempt. Flávio Bolsonaro met with Trump at the White House earlier this year to seek his backing. Lula used his victory speech to reject the idea that Brazil is a backyard for other nations, referencing the Donroe Doctrine.

World leaders have sent congratulations to Lula. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said democracy and multilateralism had won. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called it a great victory for global progressivism. French President Emmanuel Macron said the two nations should work toward a more just world. Ecuador President Daniel Noboa Azin emphasized the shared challenges in the region, while South African President Cyril Ramaphosa hailed the win for the global south.